by Alyson E. Raletz

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. — The 2010 race for an area state Senate seat already is shaping up as a showdown between possibly five state lawmakers and is triggering a domino effect in Buchanan County politics.

On deck to run for the 34th Senatorial District, which Senate President Pro Tem Charlie Shields, R-St. Joseph, must vacate at the end of next year because of term limits, is Rep. Dr. Rob Schaaf, R-St. Joseph — the only one in the lineup to confirm his intentions to run.

The race also is prompting a toss-up between St. Joseph Reps. Martin Rucker and Ed Wildberger to run on the Democratic side. That choice could become null and void, though, as Mr. Wildberger said he might be considered to serve as the next Missouri state fire marshal.

As far as the district’s other half — Platte County — Rep. Jason Brown, R-Platte City, and Rep. Jason Grill, D-Parkville, also are mulling over bids.

And political circles in both counties are scouting out candidates to vie for the House seats that would be left vacant, either as a result of the above scenarios or because of term limits.

“There’s a lot of recruiting going on right now,” said longtime Northwest Missouri Republican Ken Beck.

Dr. Schaaf long has eyed the Senate seat. He established a campaign committee for it a year ago, and kept it active during his re-election campaign in 2008. Missouri Ethics Commission reports show he’s raised $11,350.

He told the News-Press he’s not campaigning, but is doing “preparatory work” for the race. That includes frequent visits to Platte County Republican events, such as club meetings, and he most recently made an address at a Feb. 12 celebration of President Abraham Lincoln’s 200th birthday, along with Mr. Shields.

“I’m well aware that Rep. Schaaf is already politicking,” Mr. Brown said. “Everybody’s having conversations. I think Rep. Schaaf is far more worried and concerned about it than anyone else. That’s his prerogative.”

Mr. Brown said he believed the second month of the legislative session was premature to make a decision on the race, saying that he’d prefer to focus on his work at the Capitol.

Jim Morris, chairman of the 34th Senatorial District Committee and chairman of the Platte County Central Republican committee, said the area GOP expects Mr. Brown to run for the Senate, but believes he could opt for a position closer to home, such as Platte County auditor.

If Dr. Schaaf and Mr. Brown do run against each other in a primary, Mr. Morris said, “It’ll probably be a closer race than people may think.”

Mr. Beck agreed. Despite Mr. Brown’s popularity as an active legislator and leadership in John McCain’s presidential campaign, plus the name recognition he received when he was wounded in Iraq in 2006, Mr. Beck said not to discount Dr. Schaaf. Dr. Schaaf is largely active in state health care issues, becoming notable most recently for his involvement in crafting a new state Medicaid system, called MO Health Net, and for stopping Gov. Matt Blunt’s controversial plan to offer health insurance to more Missourians in 2008.

“One thing we found out in the last election was Rob came through and showed his popularity,” Mr. Beck said.

Dr. Schaaf’s 28th House District seat will be available in 2010, as he has reached his term limits, as well.

Northwest Missouri Republican Club President Mik Chester is running for the office. He’s established a committee and has begun early fundraising activities.

No Democrats have declared their intentions, but Mark Sheehan, who attempted to unseat Dr. Schaaf in November, could return for a wide-open race in 2010.

“I certainly wouldn’t close the door,” said Mr. Sheehan, the News-Press’ former Opinion page editor.

A term-limited Mr. Wildberger also is eyeing the Senate seat, but so is his friend, Mr. Rucker, who can run for only one more two-year term in the House. If Mr. Rucker wants the Senate seat, he’ll have to pursue it in 2010 or wait two to six years before the chance could come up again.

The two have mutually agreed they wouldn’t run against each other in a Senate primary, so the pair will decide among themselves in coming weeks who will officially go on the Democratic ticket.

“We don’t want to put our supporters in a precarious position and have to make a decision between the two of us,” Mr. Rucker said. “We actually share a lot of the same friends. We hope to have that worked out.”

Buchanan County Democrat Club President Pat Squires said the two both have strengths, pointing to Mr. Wildberger’s background in public safety and reputation as a strong Democratic voice, while Mr. Rucker, a St. Joseph School District board member, has gained popularity among the sports and education communities.

“Both of them in our mind are good representatives of the Democratic party, and we don’t want a bloody primary, to put it bluntly,” Mr. Squires said.

The decision could largely depend on what Mr. Wildberger, a former St. Joseph firefighter, hears about the state fire marshal post. He said he didn’t apply for the position to replace Randy Cole, the marshal who still remains under Gov. Matt Blunt’s prior administration. Mr. Cole earns $79,119 a year.

“I’ve been contacted by the governor’s office,” Mr. Wildberger said, but he hasn’t been approached with the appointment. If he decides to run for Senate, he likely would reject any fire marshal offer that would follow, he added.

No Republicans have come forward as possible candidates for Mr. Wildberger’s 27th House District seat, which opens up in 2010 regardless of his decision. But Democrats are considering the idea.

Mr. Squires may try his hand at politics. City Councilman Roger Baker said he is thinking about a statehouse run, and Buchanan County Clerk Pat Conway also said he is looking into the House seat. If Mr. Conway won the House race, his county clerk office would be wide open for the first time since 1983.

Mr. Squires said area Democrats are preparing for the possibility that Mr. Rucker may seek the Senate post and are recruiting possible names to fill his 29th House District seat, as well.

Alyson E. Raletz can be reached at alysonraletz@npgco.com.